This site lists predicted events.  Please predict when these events will occur.  See also Futurebot


01. When will RFID tags reach the 3 cent cost goal and their usage cause serious loss of human jobs?

02. When will only one person be positioned in the airline flight cabin of most commercial flights in the
US?

03. When humans can receive new organs which are histocompatible and grown in pigs, will it become
true that money can buy health in the sense that the wealthy can afford to have their own pig farm with
histocompatible pigs for each of the family members?  
For further background go to: HistoOrgans


03.01 What year will enough such farms be available such that a dozen families will have backup
organs?

03.02 Will histocompatible backup organs grown in pigs ever be covered by Medicare?
03.02.01 If so, when?  
03.03 Will general purpose backup organs grown in pigs ever be covered by Medicare?
03.03.01 If so, when?

04. Carbon Nanotubes
04.01 When will carbon nanotubes find their first application in microcircuits as interconnects?
04.02 When will someone fashion animal DNA to produce an improved neuron?

04.03 Bent Carbon Nanotubes.  Background

05. Time-sharing cars are available in San Francisco and other places in the world.  The reader should
familiarize herself with these systems before answering questions about self-driving automobiles.  
Time-Sharing Cars
Please read up on Car-sharing of self-driven cars before continuing.  Self-driven time-sharing.
According to the car sharing network www.carshare.net there are more than 36 cities in the US which
offer car sharing.  This is true even though cars which drive themselves are not yet available.  When
emergency 911 is dialed on a cell phone, an internal global positioning chip determines the position of
the cell phone within 30 feet and transmits that information to the emergency facility.  When will it be
possible for the GPS position to be sent to the car sharing facility?  Please read the articles referring to
car sharing in Washington State and Switzerland:
http://faculty.washington.edu/krumme/transport/carshare.html
http://www.mobility.ch/
Will these car sharing companies try to capture most of the initial production of self-driving cars?


05.01. When will 1% of the automobiles driven in the US be self-driven?




06. When the safety of having a car drive itself exceeds that of a 16 year-old, will the minimum age for
driving a human-driven car be raised?
06.01. If so, when will the minimum age be 18 years-old for driving a human-driven automobile in the US?
06.02. How many self-driving cars will be on the highway when the age is raised to 18?
06.03. If so, when will when will the minimum age  be 21 years-old in the US?
06.04. How many self-driving cars will be on the highway when the age needed to be licensed to drive a
human-driven car is raised to 21?

06.05. If passing out tickets and seizing the automobiles of drivers which drive while under the influence
of alcohol (DUI) or driving while intoxicated (DWI) is an effective deterrent to such activities, when will
judges start to shortcut earlier procedures and simply demand that a guilty person purchase or lease a
self-driving car?  

06.05.01. Will judges do this after only one offense?  
06.05.02. What year will this start to happen?
06.05.03. When will news articles first appear which note that policemen are being laid off of their jobs
because fewer traffic tickets are being issued because of self-driven cars?
06.05.04. When will it be noticed that more people are drinking at bars because they have self-driven
cars to drive them home.  This factor should increase business for bars especially as unemployment
rises due to robots taking over manual labor jobs.


06.06. If in 2004, only half of the families which live in Manhattan New York owned an automobile, will
this change to even less ownership when taxicabs and rental cars can drive themselves?  

07. In preparation for the following questions, please read:
http://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2004/10/rfid_passports.html
When will the first passports have RFID tags embedded in them?
When will half of all US passports in circulation have RFID tags embedded in them?

07.01 As robots gain in ability they will start to become direct replacements for humans doing simple
jobs.  

08.01 The more laws that are passed to protect human jobs, the more new companies want to not hire
humans in the first place.  In France, Coca-Cola has constructed a canning plant outside Paris whose
automation is so complete that there are only 4 humans employed there.  Has the policy actually
protected jobs or has it contributed to the acceleration of replacing human workers with automation?  
Unemployment in France is in the double digits.  Figures of 13 to 15% are common.

09. The concept of bent carbon nanotubes has now entered our vocabulary.  Background.
09.01. When will carbon nanotubes find their first application in microcircuits as interconnects?

10.01. When will someone fashion DNA to produce an improved neuron?

11.01. To what extent is Artificial General Intelligence progress slowed by a lack of need?  In other
words, we would expect types of intelligence that humans don't have or are not superior at to be what is
in demand.  Doing accounting such as spreadsheets is something that requires mathematics and
accuracy, both of which are human weaknesses.