Dilemma of Bad Predictions
Rude awakings from bad predictions.
They casually mentioned in CNBC on November 5, 2015 that Facebook was the largest media
company in the world. How long did take for them to apply the name "media company" which
would typically be used for newspapers and television stations to Facebook?
This dislocation in the perception of categories will lead to a small bit of confusion and
meanwhile, investors can make money by recognizing such transformations before most other
investors "see it coming."
Volkswagen was hailed as one of the best stocks to own. Somehow they were getting better
performance out of their diesel vehicles than anyone else.
Then came the shock of realization that they had been cheating with their emissions
Disruption in the Volkswagen stock price followed.
On CNBC, Joe Kernan is one of the morning hosts. He casually mentions "the Singularity"
because he has read Ray Kurzweil's books and the audience is not sure that he fully believes
that "the Singularity is Coming" or is making fun at a liberal. Meanwhile both Joe and Ray
laugh at Cold Fusion which according to Gary Taubes and others is a Bad Science. Some
even call it a Pathological Science.
But we know that Low Energy Nuclear Reactions are not only working in the labs but are
working on a very practical level at an Industrial Heat Alpha Testing site somewhere in North
Carolina. February 2016, the Alpha machines will be shut down and analyzed to make sure
that they were not developing any dangerous reactions with their insides.
This will lead to a disruption in the world of information much like a slippage of one techtonic
plate next to another techtonic plate leads to an earthquake. Should we call such events
Everyone must agree that Ray Kurzweil is brilliant an inventor of significant items and a
writer of significant ideas. In promoting his concept of The Singularity, he points out that
solar cells are getting less expensive at an exponential rate and we will be living in a world
dominated by solar cell provided energy in 2030. Will he be embarassed when most of the
solar cell manufacturers go bankrupt before then?
Harry Dent concentrates his predictions on the basis of demographics. Who and how many
people are retiring, are people living longer, etc.
What he misses is that we are in a transition to automation and that he should more properly
include robots as part of the demographic shift.