Advanced
Models in the Mind
Umpire's Bad Calls

Umpires in baseball watch as the base runner slides in to touch the base and the opponent
player attempts to tag him out.  What humans do all day is to act on the prediction of the
model in their mind rather than what actually happens.  The trick of being a good umpire is to
wait until the data of what actually happened settles down before making a decision.  
Otherwise the decision is based on what was anticipated to happen just before the event
actually occurred.  This is one reason that bad calls are sometimes made.

Examples:
Awkward Teenage Years
Orchestra Conductor