How People Mis-estimate How Long Things Take

Examples of how things work:

Let us say that information about how the mind works is expanding by a factor of two every ten years.  
This is a conservative estimate.

Decade 01: 1
Decade 02: 2
Decade 03: 4
The present time from which estimates are made.
Decade 04: 8
Decade 05: 16
Decade 06: 32

The typical human mind will estimate that if 7 things have been accomplished in the previous 3 decades,
that 7 more will be accomplished in the next 3 decades.  Our robots are designed to project that 56
items will be accomplished in the next ten decades.  56/7 is the ratio of 8, which is 2 cubed, where cubed
comes from 3 decades.

Decade 01: 1
Decade 02: 2
Decade 03: 4
Decade 04: 8
Decade 05: 16
The present time from which estimates are made.
Decade 06: 32
Decade 07: 64
Decade 08: 128
Decade 09: 256
Decade 10: 512

Again, the typical human will estimate that since 31 things have been accomplished in the past 50 years
that 31 more things will be accomplished in the next 50 years.  Exceptions are Ray Kurzweil and Bill Joy
who know better.  The robots we design at XelleX Systems will estimate 32 times as many which is the
ratio between 992 and 31.


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