Bob Finds Creative Ways of Losing Money
You have read "Fooled by Randomness" and have "joined the club" with the rest of us who no
longer trust our own brains to make proper decisions.
Being that you are into lists and organization, you must now list the reasons for your transactions.
What reasons would you list for the AAPL Calandar Call spread transaction you cite below?
1. Bob Russell or the Author of a book that Bob has read has determined that the Black Scholes
model is "Incorrect" by a few percent and the Calls which he purchased are too cheap and the Calls
which he sold are too expensive.
2. Some people suspect that now that Steve Jobs is dead that we will see a gradual denouement of
the plot wherein the talent gathered in Apple by Steve Jobs will dissipate. The best retail executive in
the nation is Ron Johnson and he will be going to J.C. Penney in 2012. As this trend continues over
time the long term Calls will turn out on the average to be Less Valuable and short term Calls as
More Valuable. Bob disagrees with this theory and is actually betting against it. Bob believes that
Apple will actually get MORE valuable Over time now that Steve Jobs is dead and Bob is buying the
long-term Calls and selling the short term Calls.
3. Bob has a "feeling" that tells him that it is simply a good idea to hold Calls which include more
time premium and to sell Calls with less time premium. Bob has this feeling in spite of his knowing
that all else being equal, one wants to be short time premium on average.
4. Bob just has a feeling which is backed by some random results and he is being "fooled by
randomness" which has reinforced his "feelings". This will lead to Bob losing money in the long term.