You should understand that this time it is different. The "economics" to which you refer is a "social
science" where the concept of "humans being on top" is so ingrained in the human psyche that "social
science" refers to societies consisting of groups of humans.
The basic fact is that Economics as well as many other fields are simply too complex for the human mind
to comprehend. This is because Humans lack the intelligence to be real experts at economics. You
can tell this because there are as many opinions on economic matters as there are human economists.
They attempt to claim expertise by comparing themselves against other human economists. They are
often saying "on the one hand observation A" but "on the other hand observation B".
But this is all changing. Intelligence is being injected into what I call the Earth System (or as a human
might say, "our society") at an exponential rate. The property of exponential graphs is that the early
part seems very benign. It is when the graph becomes almost vertical that a few astute people start to
notice. Most people don't notice because they are fixed on the assumption that Humans are "On Top",
"the Boss", "The Top of the Food Chain" and will be for the foreseeable future.
Consider the following facts concerning how Machine Intelligence has impacted the games of Go, Chess
and Japanese Chess.
First, IBM Deep Blue defeated the world chess champion Gary Kasparov in 1997. It did this using "brute
force" of looking at millions of board positions and judging them with what was a "weak theory" of what a
good board position was.
What did that do to the game of Chess? Human Chess players now join with computers to play games
against each other. The typical question is in the form of "Do you think computer A plus Grand Master
(human) B could team up to defeat Computer C?"
How does a Grand Master Human practice chess at home "by himself" these days? There has been a
freeware software created to play chess which is an advanced version of the IBM computer. It is called
StockFish, and can run on anything from a home computer to a larger computer with 128 CPUs.
If you watch the games of humans against Stockfish, you will notice that a human Grand Master can
make a comment like "I would be lucky to even tie a game against StockFish".
Example The following quote:
It is well established that the days of human-computer rivalry are long gone. In a four- or five-game
match, even Magnus Carlsen will stand no chance against Houdini or Stockfish running on decent
But now comes a new competitor onto the scene. AlphaZero can defeat StockFish. In 100 games
played, AlphaZero won 27 and tied the rest.
So, now we have AlphaZero which plays chess with a neural network based on the concepts of the
human brain. It beats computers based on CPUs by using GPU variations called TPUs or Tensor
Processing Units. A TPU can be purchased mounted on a PC video card for about $3000. AlphaZero
uses 4 TPUs. In other words, one can construct the AlphaZero hardware for about $12,000 and that
price is going to fall.
Technically-oriented humans understand the importance of a machine that can exhibit more intelligence
in playing a set of games than a computer that uses "brute force" and "narrow AI" techniques.
We have entered a new era where a Deep Learning Machine can defeat a Computer that in turn can
defeat all human game players.
If you make a list of things that AlphaZero-style Deep Learning Machines can do better than humans,
the list is growing every day.
Read X-Rays and other medical images? Deep Learning now dominates over earlier systems which
were better than human radiologists.
It turns out that over the past two years, deep learning has totally rewritten our approach to machine
translation. Deep learning researchers who know almost nothing about language translation are
throwing together relatively simple machine learning solutions that are beating the best expert-built
language translation systems in the world.
The technology behind this breakthrough is called sequence-to-sequence learning. It’s very powerful
technique that be used to solve many kinds problems. After we see how it is used for translation, we’ll
also learn how the exact same algorithm can be used to write AI chat bots and describe pictures.
Once again, the Deep Learning machines are better than the former human expert built translation
systems. The importance of these advances will not become evident to most people. Humans are
typically raised to think that "humans are on top and will always be on top".
Only if you are watching what is happening "at the fringes" will you see the actual long-term future of
Typically humans think that they can foresee by looking at history and that since history is of humans
and current history is being written by humans that the future will resemble the past.
But this path of history is no longer true.
Guess what they are going to do with these new super-intelligent systems? One of the first tasks is to
try to get Current Deep Learning Machines to improve the structure of Next Generation of Deep
Right now, we have a situation where an amateur chess player can beat 99% of all humans at the game
Meanwhile, a human who studies chess could beat that amateur.
But such a human couldn't beat a human Chess Master at chess.
Next in order of competence is IBM's Deep Blue which can defeat Human Grand masters.
And next we have StockFish which can defeat IBM's Deep Blue Chess playing machine
We have also found that StockFish can defeat all human chess players.
Next we have AlphaZero which can defeat (with absolutely no losses at all) the StockFish Chess playing
We can look forward to a new Deep Learning Machine which will defeat the current AlphaZero at Chess,
Go and Japanese Chess.
The applications of this "new intelligence" is going to be applied to economics, politics, manipulating
voters, manipulating human customers, etc. Ask yourself, what fields of endeavor don't become
improved with added intelligence?
The human-based ideas are growing more obsolete by the moment.
What is being fed to humans is created on the basis of judging what will appeal to those humans that
are paying for the service. Liberal ideas are being fed to politically liberal humans on liberal news
channels while at the same time in a different venue, conservative ideas are being fed to politically
conservative humans on conservative channels. You are being fed what your biases want have
In short, you are now trapped in the limitations of your human mind. How do you plan to escape?